So everyone has been talking about the shadow inventory right! The map below shows the estimated months of supply of distressed properties not yet on market in the shadow inventory. This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Source NAR.
Early last we the NAR National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Economists’ Outlook and gave us a map showing the percentage of overall sales that distressed properties represented in each state. Today it is important to get to the bottom of this so called “shadow inventory” We want to show you a map from the same NAR outlook. This one shows the number of months shadow inventory by state:
NAR explained their methodology:
This map shows the number of months it would take to clear the shadow inventory by state. The months’ supply is estimated by dividing the shadow inventory and the monthly number of distressed sales. The numbers range broadly from 51 months in New Jersey to 7 months in Nevada. When looking at months’ supply it is important to keep in mind that this estimate highly depends on saturation of distressed sales. Given that New Jersey over the past year on average reported about 20 percent of existing home sales to be distressed sales, it will take a longer period for the shadow inventory to clear. In contrast, Nevada’s distressed sales averaged a considerable 70 percent share of the existing sales and at that rate the current shadow inventory would clear in 7 months.
Bottom Line
It will take some time before consistent appreciation takes place in your market depending on the months of supply of distressed properties and shadow inventory. CA is getting there, but has some room to move. Hopefully we can begin to see some steady increases by next year.
To all your success,
Justin Brennan
REALTOR | BROKER
Middleton Associates La Jolla
848 Prospect Street
La Jolla, CA 92037
c: 619-823-2120
www.TheLaJollaLife.com
Justin@TheLaJollaLife.com
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